A Step in the Right Direction: The COP21 Draft Agreement

On December 5, representatives from almost 200 nations around the world created a draft agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2° Celsius.

The entire 48-page document is here, and these are the three main points (or at least the readable part): “In order to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, Parties agree to take urgent action and enhance cooperation and support so as: (a) To hold the increase in the global average temperature [below 1.5 °C] [or] [well below 2 °C] above pre-industrial levels by ensuring deep reductions in global greenhouse gas [net] emissions; (b) To Increase their ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change [and to effectively respond to the impacts of the implementation of response measures and to loss and damage]; (c) To pursue a transformation towards sustainable development that fosters climate-resilient and low greenhouse gas emission societies and economies, and that does not threaten food production and distribution.”

The good news, NPR reports, is that “almost all countries have already pledged to make some kind of reduction in their emissions and greenhouse gases. So that’s done. And it’s voluntary.” The tricky part of getting those countries to negotiate and sign the draft, says Wired, falls into four categories: “Long-time rich countries telling newly-rich and never-gonna-be-rich countries to build their economies without relying on fossil fuels; newly rich and never-gonna-be rich countries saying that the long-time rich countries ought to help foot the bill for building carbon-less economies; long-time rich countries saying that it’s not quite fair that they pay for all of it and wouldn’t it be nice if the newly-rich countries helped to pick up the tab; and finally, small island countries shouting that they are already being drowned by sea level rise, and would somebody—perhaps long-time rich countries?—please help, or at least give them some money so they can buy somewhere new to live.”

The Paris setting, so soon after the terrorist attacks, the New York Times writes, could signal more “compromise than confrontation” as world leaders arrive today to review and massage the agreement and talk about specifics. One tough issue they might tackle is deforestation: “a tricky and complicated subject that involves paying developing nations like Brazil and Indonesia not to cut down trees for agriculture.” (Scientific American has a great post about why stopping deforestation is so important to reducing greenhouse emissions.)

As the leaders reach the December 11 deadline for an agreement, Nature describes that “One of the big questions for negotiators is how countries’ performance carrying out their pledges will be reported and ultimately reviewed.”

We’re looking forward to an agreement at the end of this week, because, according to Wired, Paris could be Earth’s last stand, and we can no longer do nothing.

Image: Deforestation in Brazil, NASA Earth Observatory