Can We Feed the World in 2050?

“I learned a lot from colleagues today, and none of that cheered me,” Paul Ehrlich said, gleefully commenting at a press conference entitled “Can We Feed the World in 2050” at last weekend’s AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science) meeting in San Jose.

The Stanford researcher never delivers good news, so his pessimism wasn’t a surprise. But Ehrlich was joined by the University of Minnesota’s James Gerber and others, who offered solutions to the world’s food future—and not just doom and gloom.

The five presenting scientists agreed that significant challenges lie ahead, particularly as the planet’s population swells past nine billion people in the next few decades. The main driver for concerns isn’t the number of people, but rather climate change.

NOAA’s Ken Kunkel and Felix Kogan and the USDA’s Jerry Hatfield explained that higher temperatures and drought will change the agricultural landscape dramatically, and while we may be able to adapt to the changes by 2050, things will only get worse from there. According to Kunkel, Midwestern corn production will face the double threat of higher temperatures and less rainfall in the future. And when both happen together, droughts become more severe. Hatfield said the drought and high temperatures don’t just have direct effects, but also indirect effects in the form of disease, weeds, and insect pressures.

Kogan observes drought from space, using satellite technology to map places where weather station data is not available. With these satellite data, he can detect the early signs of drought and provide that information globally to help nations (such as those in Africa) prepare for dry conditions. He hopes that more funding for these remote-sensing systems will bolster worldwide planning and response to changing conditions.

Gerber voiced concern about downward trends in grain reserves and concentration of production in smaller areas, which increases “vulnerability to pests and social unrest, all against the backdrop of climate change.”

So what are the solutions? Gerber said that here in the developed world, we must change diets, eating less red meat and fewer processed foods. Hatfield explained that we need to improve efficiency of production using less nutrients and less water. Kunkel was less hopeful, but said a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions now could buy some time. Even Ehrlich offered a solution, insisting that we must move agriculture and overfishing to the top of the agenda in both politics and education.

So can we feed the world in 2050? Ehrlich was doubtful, but Hatfield declared, “We can, but it’s going to take some changes.”

Image: "Plantacaoorganica" by Elza Fiuza/ABr via Wikimedia Commons